Mint Condition - January 29, 2024
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Leading Off
It’s the dead of winter and that means one thing for me in the collecting world — it’s a great time to have an eye on spring training and start purchasing baseball cards while prices remain depressed in the offseason. Back by popular demand, you’ll find below a snapshot of some of the players I am buying up and staying away from.
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Let’s get into it…
Mint Condition’s Take:
—BUY—
Nolan Jones (IF/OF, Colorado Rockies): After a taste of the majors in 2022, which was nothing special (.250 average over 20+ games), the Cleveland Guardians dealt Jones to the Rockies for a Single-A prospect. Jones started in AAA in 2023, was called back up to the show in May, and put together an underratedly impressive rookie season in 100+ games — .300 average, .930 OPS, 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, and 19 outfield assists. For those skeptical about his numbers given the friendly confines of Coors Field, listen to this: he had the same OPS and homer numbers at home vs. away in 2023. At 25 years old, Jones has the potential to be the newest of the game’s top young outfielders. While there is some risk here given how often we see a rookie burst onto the scene only to regress in his sophomore campaign, Jones’ card prices are relatively cheap and make this bet worth the downside. His 1st Bowman Chrome Autos from 2016 sell for $30, which is significantly less than comparable players at his position, age, and experience, including James Outman ($40+ for 2019 Bowman Paper Autos) and Michael Harris ($130+ for 2020 Bowman Chrome Autos). Bottom line: Low risk given the entry price point, high upside given his potential across hitting, baserunning, and defense.
Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF, Houston Astros): Everyone knows Alvarez — he’s been in the majors for 5 years, he has won Rookie of the Year and a World Series, and he has hit almost 130 homers in his career. So why is he still a buy from my perspective? Because he is slightly undervalued for a player at his caliber and age (26!), and if his career trajectory continues, he should be valued like a top 5 hitter in baseball. Today, his 1st Bowman Chrome Autos from 2018 sell for $250, which is significantly lower than those of players like Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper (all $1,000+ for their 1st Bowman Chrome Autos). Yes, Alvarez is mainly a DH and does not steal bases, so his ability to impact the game outside of his bat are limited, unlike the aforementioned players, so perhaps his card values never fully reach their levels. But there is plenty of room for upside. Injuries are a slight concern, as he has missed time in each of the last few seasons (including all of 2020 with foot surgery), though the bulk of his playing time happens at DH, so the wear-and-tear on his body should factor in less than if he took the field everyday. Bottom line: Higher risk given the entry price point, significant upside if he continues performing and is valued like a perennial superstar player.
Anthony Volpe (SS, New York Yankees): So many people have hopped off the bandwagon after his first season in the majors that his card prices are low enough to make him a buy. When Volpe got the call to the show coming out of Spring Training last year, his 1st Bowman Chrome Autos from 2020 were selling for $500+. As the newest, young shortstop to man the middle of the infield for the Yankees, the hype was justified and real. Entering 2024, there is a bit of a different tone around Volpe. He didn’t have the magical year everyone envisioned in 2023, hitting .210, striking out almost 170 times, and committing 17 errors (6th among MLB SS). But did we see enough last year to get excited about his Bowman Chrome Autos falling to around $200 ahead of his age-24 season? Yes. Not many people remember that in their first stint in the majors, 21-year old Derek Jeter hit .250 and 20-year old Mike Trout hit .220. Volpe does not need an MPV-type season to see his cards appreciate in value, rather an improved year offensively (.250-.275 average) and defensively (<10 errors) will be enough to give people the confidence that he can be the long-term Yankees shortstop. Volpe’s cards should not have sold off as much as they did, and it has created a buying opportunity if you believe in the upside and can stomach the potential risk. Bottom line: While not a cheap card today, it will only take a few flashes of improvement to push Volpe’s card values higher.
—SELL—
Manny Machado (3B, San Diego Padres): Coming off a disappointing season individually and as a team, recovering from elbow surgery in October, and being a part of a Padres team that traded away Juan Soto and might not be as competitive as they hoped to be in a tough NL West after making investments in Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts, there are a lot of factors working against Machado. He hasn’t won a World Series yet, is a career .220 postseason hitter, and his cheapest 1st Bowman Chrome Autos are going for $250. I am not bullish on his production bouncing back, the Padres being more of a playoff contender than last year given the loss of Soto, and, thus, Machado’s card values. Bottom line: Stay away unless you’re convinced of a bouneback year for Machado and the Padres.
Jeremy Peña (SS, Houston Astros): Can we be honest with ourselves here? Peña’s 2020 Bowman Chrome Autos shot up to $250 after his breakout playoff series against the New York Yankees and my beloved Philadelphia Phillies. Prices since then have come down nearly 80% and those cards are selling for closer to $50 now. In two full regular seasons, Peña has hit .260 without much power and is average defensively. It’s a true make-or-break year for Peña. $50 per card is still too steep for me and I am unable to get bullish on a player who hasn’t shown above-average hitting or defense in his first two full seasons, outside of a few outstanding playoff series. Bottom line: The 2022 World Series gets further away by the day and Peña’s card values should reflect his recent performance. Stay away. There’s more room for prices to fall.
Nathan Eovaldi (SP, Texas Rangers): Pitchers generally are not beloved by the hobby. They are injury-prone, take the field only once every five days, and for years now have seen generally lower card values vs. hitters. This is why when a pitcher’s card values spike after one year of outsized performance, questions begin around the hobby around how sustainable it is. Before last season, Eovaldi’s 1st Bowman Chrome Autos from 2021 could be scooped up for less than $5. He was a slightly above-average pitcher for the bulk of his career and entering his age 33 season, his hobby value was pretty much set in stone, outside of a Cy Young-type year. Fast forward and in the 2023 playoffs, Eovaldi put up a 2.95 ERA and 5-0 record and helped lead the Texas Rangers to a World Series. That performance sent his Bowman Chrome Autos up 5x to $25. As we enter the 2024 season, is there upside left? I am not knocking Eovaldi as an above-average pitcher or downplaying his magical run in the playoffs, and there’s an opportunity for another World Series run for the Rangers this year with Eovaldi leading the pitching staff. But the hobby doesn’t love pitchers and I don’t see enough potential upside here to buy in. Bottom line: Don’t get fooled by the low entry price point. Low upside barring another magical World Series run.
As always, I would love to hear your thoughts. You can reach me at jbmintcondition@gmail.com or on Twitter @jbmintcondition
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